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2025: Two Patterns of Economic Development




        It is 2025. It has been another 25 years of integration with the global economy under growing competition. For 20 years Poland has been a member of the UE, which now produces in total more than the US. Does the Polish share in world's GDP exceed 1 per cent? Does Poland's share in world's trade hover at 2 per cent? Has our GDP, as calculated according to the Mass Privatisation Programme (the MPP), exceeded 30 thousand dollars, i.e. the level that was approximately achieved by the EU and the USA 25 years before? This would be possible if we managed to double Polish GDP every 12 years during the first 25 years of the 21st century.

        Or does Poland's share in the world production in 2025 hardly exceed 0.7-0.8 per cent, which is not more than a generation before? Does our share in world's trade hover at a mediocre level and has the pace of growth, which oscillates around 3 per cent annually, led only to the doubling of the GDP per capita (according to the MPP) to the level of 15 thousand dollars - as much as was exceeded by Slovenia in 2001?  

        Both scenarios are possible. Which of the two is going to come true depends on the development strategy, which has to take into account both threats and benefits that the contemporary stage of globalisation can bring Poland, as well as on the effectiveness of the policy of structural and institutional changes, such policy being compatible with the development strategy. The implementation of the strategy of the socio-economic development is based on these four pillars

-       fast growth;

-       fair distribution;

-       beneficial integration;

-       effective state

and may create the opportunities to implement the scenario of bridging the gap between Poland and the part of the world that boasts the most advanced level of economic development.