|
Chapter
VI
Transition
to a market and entrepreneurship. The Systemic Factors
and Policy Options.
1.
Introduction
The
political and ideological concerns aside, the fundamental
economic argument in favor of postsocialist transition
to a market system has been a supposition that it
will improve allocative efficiency and thus the
competitiveness of the industries and standard of
living of the households. It was believed that the
shift of property rights from state to private sector
must facilitate such an improvement fast. Yet in
the majority of cases -- even after the first decade
of transition -- the economies have not returned
to the path of sustainable growth. In 1999 a quarter
of transition economies of East Central Europe (ECE)
and the former Soviet Union (FSU) are still in or
have returned to contraction.
The
pre-transitional 1989 level of GDP has been recovered
only in Poland in 1995, in Slovenia in 1998 and
in Slovakia in 1999. In the remaining 25 countries
of ECE and FSU as well as in Mongolia the output
is still below the pre-transition level and on average
for the whole transition economies region it is
at a low 75 percent of the output registered in
1989 (EBRD 1999). In two biggest postsocialist countries,
Russia and Ukraine, it remains around half and one
third, respectively, of the pre-transition level.
Still worse, it appears likely to continue shrinking
in 1999-2000.
Such
a meager outcome from the early phases of transition
stems much more from the fundamental mismanagement
of the process of postsocialist changes than from
the over-emphasized 'legacy of the past' (Kolodko
1999a).
Neither
the governments of the countries involved, nor the
international community assisting the process of
postsocialist transition assumed at any stage of
the endeavor that the process would go along such
an awkward way. After ten years of transition for
majority of them it is a rather bitter surprise.
The
policies implemented in the ECE and the FSU emerging
markets have been based to a great extent on the
early Washington Consensus. It presupposed
-- though was designed in the first place to address
the structural crisis in Latin America, and not
in the region of the formerly centrally planned
economies -- that liberalization-cum-stabilization,
together with fast privatization, if only supported
by financial policy, must bring soon recovery and
later sustained growth. Such a prognosis took for
granted that this course of changes will secure
improvement of allocative efficiency and automatically
wipe out wasteful allocation typical for the distorted
socialist economy. Yet for a number of reasons it
has not occurred. The crucial cause for such disappointment
has been the negligence of the institutional arrangements
necessary for the successful performance of postsocialist
economies (Poznanski 1996, Kolodko and Nuti 1997,
North 1997, Stiglitz 1998, 1999).
The
countries that are dealing more successfully with
the issues of recovery and growth are these which
were able to focus not only on de-nationalization
of the state assets, but also on the development
of venture entrepreneurship, mainly on the small
scale. The grass-rooted development of especially
small and medium enterprises has contributed significantly
to overcoming the transitional depression and then
to the recovery and fast growth. Yet accomplishing
such a sequence requires that specific systemic
and policy conditions must be met. Just the policy
of liberalization-cum-stabilization and de-etatization
is not sufficient. To facilitate the required path
of development a proper institutional arrangements
must be executed by the governments, a legal framework
must be established and the government policies
must support the rise and competitive performance
of the SME. Liberalization in the broad sense of
opening up market processes, is a prerequisite for
the growth of this sector in transition economies,
yet itself is not satisfactory.
In
this paper we discussed some of the fundamental
features necessary for the take-off of SME in postsocialist
economies in transition. The second section presents
the conceptualization of the transition process,
within which the SME development is discussed. In
third section, the meaning of the legacy and the
structural, as well as institutional and behavioral,
characteristics inherited from the past are considered.
Fourth, the significance of the removal of shortages,
economic (price, trade, in-out business, capital
flow) liberalization for entrepreneurship development
and the demand factors are presented. Fifth, the
role that the change in property rights plays in
development of the SME is examined and the meaning
of the legal measures and the new institutional
arrangements are discussed. Sixth, the role that
an emerging 'growth lobby' may play for the expansion
of the SME is examined. And last, the policy conclusions
which support the sustainability of development
are drawn.
2.
Transition and the entrepreneurship
Transition
to a market economy must be seen as a historical
process of complex changes leading from the centrally
planned economy based upon the dominance of bureaucratic
coordination and state property to an open economy
based upon market coordination and dominance of
the private property. From such an angle the crucial
factor in establishing of the market economy --
after the statist economy of the socialist, centrally
planned type is abandoned -- is the development
of the private sector. Yet privatization is far
from sufficient to accomplish such a target.
Transition
consists of three parallel processes (Kolodko 1992).
First, liberalization-cum-stabilization, second,
institution building and, third, the microeconomic
restructuring of the existing capacity.
Considering
the point of departure towards a free market, i.e.
a largely distorted price structure and financial
disequilibria at the late stage of centrally planned
economy, the liberalization process initially caused
further financial destabilization, mainly initiating
an inflationary process. Since inflation was repressed
under the socialist economic regime, liberalization
at first leads to acceleration of price (open) inflation
and therefore calls for thorough stabilization policy.
This in turn, requires though financial and monetary
policies, what has particular implications for further
structural reforms associated with transition to
a market system.
Second,
the core of transition is the process of institution
building. The market does not mean just a liberal
regulation (or de-regulation) and dominance of private
property expanding fast due to ongoing privatization,
i.e. de-nationalization of the existing assets.
The market means both private property and liberal
regulation AND the building of institutions. The
institutions are the rules of the economic game
and the organizations facilitating these rules as
well as the links between them (North 1997). Thus
the establishment of appropriate institutional arrangements
is indispensable for the birth and growth of a market
economy. The more this is the case in the postsocialist
countries, where the old institutional regime is
being dismantled and the new one must be developed
almost from the scratch. Unlike liberalization-cum-stabilization,
which may be (if the political circumstances permit)
executed in a less or more radical manner, institution
building in each case must be a gradual process.
It takes time and calls not only for new law
and organization framework but also for lasting
process of learning by doing.
Transition
to a market makes sense only if it leads to the
improvement of efficiency and thus relatively better
overall economic performance. Hence, microeconomic
restructuring, tied to the liberalization-cum-stabilization,
on the one hand, and to the new institutional arrangements,
on the other, must be seen as another indispensable
part of the whole transitional endeavor. This process
needs not only time, but first of all the capital,
new investment and retraining as well as re-deployment
of the labor. It is also very costly in the terms
of both financial resources and the social costs.
The new economic structure resulting from these
changes contributes to upgrading industrial capacities
and thus to higher competitiveness and, at the end,
to rising standard of living. Microeconomic restructuring
is linked to both the streamlining of existing capacities
and to the creation of entirely new units facilitating
the processes of producing the goods and delivering
the services.
Within
such conceptual framework transition always is a
gradual process. It can be managed better or worse,
it can last a shorter or longer time, but in its
complexity it is and must be by its very nature
a gradual process. In these lights even in the countries
most advanced in transition, e.g. these that have
already joined the OECD or are negotiating their
accession to the EU, the transition is far from
over.
Therefore,
the development of entrepreneurship in the postsocialist
countries in transition should be seen through the
prism of this three-dimensional gradual process.
It also ought to be interesting to examine the systemic
and policy implications for the development of the
SME from such an angle.
One
may claim that the main purpose for the whole transition
exercise is the creation of entrepreneurship. Undoubtedly,
liberalization and privatization are unleashing
the entrepreneurship, yet these two processes are
not sufficient to turn emerging activities in manufacturing,
trade, financial and other services into a constructive
force. As much as the final success of postsocialist
transition in ECE and FSU and the reforms of the
socialist system in China and Vietnam depend on
the expansion of entrepreneurship in all sectors
of the economy, the development of sound entrepreneurship
is due to the proper design of certain other processes,
firstly institution building.
Only
the appropriate institutions can channel the emerging
activities in postsocialist countries in such ways,
that the new market-based entrepreneurship will
contribute to growing competitiveness and sustained
growth. Otherwise, it can turn against long-term
growth and development, as it has happened, unfortunately,
in some of transition economies, including Russia,
the most important and the largest of them all.
3.
The legacy of reformed vs. unreformed economies
for the SME development
Leaving
aside the agriculture sector in some countries --
especially in Poland where as much as 80 percent
of farm land was not neither nationalized nor collectivized
-- and some positive examples, though only with
minor meaning, from the service sector (e.g. retail
trade, construction, transport, housekeeping, etc.)
there almost were no SME in the old system. This
single fact has the most significant implication
for their expansion during transition period, since
in majority cases they must be developed from the
beginning. Yet there are some systemic and real
differences between the countries under discussion.
The
point of departure to postsocialist transition ten
years ago was different in particular countries.
On the one hand, we have had traditional, soviet-type,
rigid economies of the FSU and some rather orthodox
ECE. On the other hand, we have had reformed economies
of ECE, especially Hungary, Poland and the former
Yugoslavia. Yet among the remaining centrally planned
economies of the ECE region there were from this
point of view not negligible differences, too. Whereas
in the GDR and to some extent in Bulgaria, there
was a little bit more of a room for the SME, in
countries like Albania and Romania the SME simply
did not exist.
Typical
feature of the development in the statist centrally
planned economies was reliance on heavy industry.
From the beginning of so-called 'socialist industrialization',
that is from the 1950s in ECE, the heavy industries
were provided with true priority as far as resources
allocation was concerned. Such a pattern of development
was based upon the long lasting and prevalent across
the region conviction that the expansion of heavy
industries in the long-run would be decisive for
the economic efficiency and thus political supremacy.
Later, even if such ill-advised conviction had evaporated,
the way the industries had been managed facilitated
the concentration of production. As long as there
was centrally planned allocation of scarce resources
there was also a natural inclination to concentrate
the production within the large units. Actually,
often according to the rules 'the larger, the better'.
So,
there was not enough room for the development and
performance of the SME. Even if they were allowed
to function (formally true in most cases) and even
if from time to time (when a reform-oriented mood
was gaining momentum) they tried to fill the vacuum
left by the large companies, there were to some
degree actually discriminated against. A lack of
proper supply of the means of production and limited
access to other resources, often in short supply,
made their existence still more problematic. If
- as it had occurred periodically - there were the
attempts to facilitate the development of SME, it
did not last long and in the real struggle for the
centrally distributed resources there were always
the losers. The legal framework, which intentionally
was introduced to support this part of the production
and service sectors, was not strong enough to secure
the smooth performance of SME, which were
always pushed into the shadows by big industrial
units, that were much easier to be managed from
the top of the state bureaucracy.
Of
course, the particular situation differed from country
to country, yet such a course of evolution was rather
typical for all of them. However, in those with
lasting communist orthodoxy, the room for private
SME performance was always a very narrow one, including
the periods where in other countries there were
certain attempts to exercise more flexible approach
towards this sector.
Indeed,
the way the management over the state sector in
socialist economy was exercised was of a paramount
importance for the evolution of the economic structure
toward the concentration of economy into a few yet
rather very large units. If it was quite understandable
in the case of, say, steel mills or ship yards,
it was a rather bizarre exercise in the instance
of the factory making buckets or ropes. Yet even
in the later cases - if it was difficult to organize
the production just under one roof - special organizational
units were created to bring the process of production
and distribution under some form of the control
of central bureaucracy.
In
countries that tried to reform their institutional
set-up and adjust the legal system towards the needs
of a more flexible economy the SME did much better.
In Hungary, Poland and the former Yugoslavia - somewhat
like China in the 1990s - the sector of small companies
employing just a few workers performed well together
with the large firms. Yet the core problem was not
the size of companies as such. What really mattered
was the character of the property. Since they were
socialist economies, they relied on state property
and there were ideologically motivated constraints
imposed upon the expansion of the SME. Whereas the
state sector was inclined towards big units, since
it was then easier to compete for centrally distributed
means of production, the private sector's expansion
was strictly limited. The small sector was doomed
to remain indeed small, since there was a political
limit imposed on its size. And not because of the
concern about efficiency, but because of the general
features of the old system.
These
orthodox limitations were somehow eased in the reform-oriented
countries. Therefore, these economies were able
to shift more resources and employment to the SME
sector, which by the same time happened often to
be the private one. The private sector was exclusively
small, because there were not at all any private
units among the large companies. The SME were allowed
to perform especially in the light industries, agribusiness
and traditional service sector. Later, the existence
of such companies had an important meaning for the
transition process for three reasons.
First,
small and medium scale of production was more flexible
and therefore, at the instant the liberalization
had come, the supply response form the SME was much
faster and better facilitating the market needs
than the response from the more rigid large companies.
Second,
the SME under the old system were mostly private
enterprises, so it was the true root for the growth
of private capital. Many SME, if only they were
able to concentrate, invest and form new capital,
become larger companies, thus contributing to sooner
accomplished recovery and growth. This is an important
part of the explanation why the transitional recession
lasted several years less in Poland, Hungary or
Slovenia - the only former Yugoslav republic that
was able to escape the misfortune of the local military
conflict, or its direct consequences as e.g. mass
migration.
However,
there was many SME which had perished 'a day after'
the economic liberalization arrived. A number of
them was able to survive under the communist regime
and accompanying it shortage environment, yet there
were not able to manage at a free market. A bulk
of the SME performing in the previous system was
efficient, yet their management did focus mainly
on procurement of the means of production, raw materials
and other assets, and, of course, securing a labor.
When the real market mechanism had begun to be introduced,
the main difficulty became to sustain profitability
when the market clearing mechanism was set in motion
due to the price liberalization. This time the difficulty
was to sell an output, not to acquire an input.
Hence, many SME were not up to this challenged and
had been wiped out of the emerging market.
Third,
the skills of the managing staff of the SME was
relatively more adequate for the needs of the emerging
market economies. Despite the fact that the managers
of these small units were far behind the qualifications
of managers in advanced market system, they were
more flexible and better prepared to undertake the
risks that the operation at market economy has brought.
Yet they were also oriented with their traditional
skills, inherited from the old system, to manage
the firm under the environment of the shortages.
So, when the shortages were eliminated many of them
were not ready to meet the new challenge brought
by the transition, because their 'fine art' of management
was rather the knowledge how to acquire the scare
goods than how to sell a plenitude of them. However,
the fact is that in those countries, which enjoyed
the SME sector under the previous regime -- owing
to the market reforms introduced before the transition
took off -- the process of structural adjustment
went much smoother. The institutional building was
going faster, the recovery came sooner, the growth
has become more robust.
4.
Shortage removal and the demand factors
The
common feature of the distorted socialist economy
was the phenomenon of shortage. In addition to all
its implications for the allocation of capital and
behavior of the households sector, it had also an
influence upon the SME. Even in the countries that
did not introduced market oriented reforms prior
to the systemic transition, e.g. Albania or Romania,
in some sense there were SME as long as there was
also an informal sector in the economy. Owing to
the short supply, various economic activities had
been undertaken in the 'shadow economy'.
Mostly
it occurred in service sector but also in manufacturing
at small scale in the industries not requiring either
the scarce raw materials or sophisticated equipment.
Such informal activities were exercised firstly
in labor-intensive production, for example in garment
industry in urban areas, or in food processing industry
in rural areas. Depending on the attitude of the
governments there were more or less restrictions
imposed upon these types of activities. Yet in all
cases -- as long as it was from the official
point of view the informal sector - neither the
flow of output from these unit, nor their overall
numbers were registered. Thus we know that there
were some SME under the economy of shortage, yet
we don't know how actually big such a sector was.
A
driving force behind the SME functioning under the
shortage economy was the short supply of the goods
and services, especially sought by the household
sector at the consumers market. Therefore, the first
feature of this activity was that the supply was
addressed basically at the consumers market. Hence,
these SME were able to sell their product in the
shadow economy, which was linked entirely to the
'private' economy, i.e. to the households sector.
They hardly operated in the investment or heavy
industry sectors at all.
The
second fundamental feature of the SME under the
economy of shortage was the syndrome 'easy sell,
difficult buy'. Where the goods and services were
in short supply, it was extremely easy to sell the
products at the parallel market, since always --
and it was a systemic characteristic -- the aggregate
demand was in excess over the aggregate supply (Kolodko
and McMahon 1987). But for the SME it was also difficult
to buy the means of production, since they were
also - owing to the same systemic factors - in short
supply. Since such SME were often informal, so the
transaction of acquiring the raw materials, procurement
goods, labor, etc., were often quasi-informal. Thus
to buy inputs was difficult and to sell output was
easy.
These
foundations had changed significantly at the onset
of transition. On the one hand, the SME that had
operated up until then in the shadow economy emerged
into the surface and tried to meet the new challenge
and opportunities in the formal sector. On the other
hand, the SME that were already performing in the
formal sector, from then on had to meet another
challenge, because instantly they found themselves
in competition, a feature they were not familiar
with. It explains why in reformed economies, e.g.
Poland or Hungary, the pace of growth of SME was
much higher than in non-reformed centrally planned
economies. In countries with a relatively liberal
financial regime, or even where the centrally planned
allocation was actually abandoned during the reforms
of the 1970s and 1980s, there were more SME in both
the formal and informal sectors before the transition.
The
paradox of this legacy for the expansion of the
SME at the early stages of postsocialist transition
was that in some cases (the best example is Poland)
the shortage economy, together with the reforms
aiming at limited liberalization, did contribute
to faster expansion of the SME. If shortages were
vast (as indeed was the case in Poland during the
1980s) and simultaneously the shadow economy was
tolerated -- even if not facilitated by the actual
government policies -- there was a greater potential
accumulated for the take-off of the SME at the day
true liberalization eventually arrived. And on the
contrary; when the shortages were vast, but yet
the supply response from the SME acting in the informal
sector was repressed by the government policies
- as, for instance, it occurred in Romania in the
course of the 1980s - then the conditions for the
SME growth at the onset of transition were very
limited too.
Thus,
when the process of transition was set in motion
at the beginning of the 1990s the biggest chance
for expansion came from the overall liberalization
of economic activities and the cessation of numerous
bureaucratic constraints imposed for a number of
reasons under the previous institutional arrangements.
The biggest challenge, in turn, stemmed from the
fact that the end of shortages removed as well the
easy way of being able too put the products and
services on the market, disregarding their quality.
It became necessary to compete not for access to
the inputs, but for the sale of the output. Thus
new expertise was needed, firstly the marketing
skills and the ability to take care of the quality
of output. The 'quantity drive' must be abandoned,
the 'quality drive' was just born.
Yet
one more paradox of development of the SME has emerged.
Despite the removal of short supply of the needed
inputs for the SME, which could be bought now in
the liberalized markets, and despite de-regulation
coming as an indispensable part of transition, the
shadow economy persists. Moreover, in a number of
the countries, especially those of the FSU that
are less advanced in the transition, the parallel
sector is much greater than ever before. Leaving
aside the pathologies - like organized crime activities
in Russia, that take a large share of all resources
and creates a large part of the informal sector,
and especially operates in the large companies and
big business (Satter 1998, Ermarth 1998, Economist
1999) - usually the informal sector is composed
basically of the SME.
Yet
this time the cause is not the shortage, since this
malaise of the centrally planned economy has been
removed together with the entire old institutional
set-up. This time the reason is a temptation to
avoid taxes. The reluctance to pay due taxes, even
if not necessary the highest ones, is quite strong
in the emerging markets. It is not only a matter
of weak tax administration, which must be streamlined
in a gradual way as transition process progresses,
but also the matter of the luck of proper fiscal
culture and underdeveloped institutions in the postsocialist
economies (Tanzi 1992).
Another
feature of the SME which stems from the shortage-removal
effect is their real structure in the transition
economies. To a much larger degree than in the developed
countries and advanced market economies, the SME
in ECE and FSU perform mainly in trade. Trade liberalization
and the hunger for consumer goods, including the
imported ones, have contributed to the mushrooming
of SME in the trade sector, especially in retail
trade. It happens - at least at the early stages
of liberalization - that it is much easier to establish
a small scale endeavor in retail trade than in manufacturing.
From
this perspective any evaluation of the number of
so-called SME must be analyzed carefully, since
it is obvious that these numbers are simply the
function of the magnitude of the country and the
number of its population, on the one hand, and of
the manner the trade is organized, on the other
hand. Later - when the process of concentration
is coming also to the private business in the trade
sector and the SME in retail trade are being replaced
by the system of super- and hyper-markets - the
number of the SME starts to decline. This is simply
the result of the technological progress in the
trade industry.
Therefore,
both the range and the characteristics of the reforms
of the centrally planned economies, as well as the
specific features of the shortage economy, have
had a significant impact upon the development of
the SME during transition to a market system. If
the quantity and the quality of this sector of emerging
postsocialist economy at the onset of transition
was given by the legacy of the outgoing system,
its evolution and contribution to the performance
of the postsocialist economies was basically resulting
from the policies executed already during transition.
Both liberalization-cum-stabilization policy and
the policy of institutional building, i.e. systemic
policy, do matter a lot for the expansion and performance
of the SME sector.
If
the combination of these policies has been a fortunate
one and its design has addressed the specific needs
of the SME in an appropriate way, then this sector
has not only expanded faster than the large companies,
but also has been integrated deeper into the formal
economy. Since its output is registered, it shows
better results as far as the recovery and growth
are concerned, too. Yet it is not only a statistical
point, since these small firms not only have begun
to operate at the formal, registered market, but
also they did expand -- and sometimes significantly
-- the range and scope of their activities.
There
is also a link between the aggregate demand's shifts
and the supply response that has been delivered
by the SME sector. Initially -- owing to the stabilization
attempts following liberalization -- the aggregate
demand was contained by a significant margin. Thus,
it caused transitional contraction, which lasted
in certain countries for several years. Later, when
the economies have been put back on the path of
recovery and growth, the growing aggregate demand
was another driving force behind the expansion of
the SME. This time, due to liberal regulation and
easy access to freed markets, they were able to
react and there was a positive supply response to
increasing demand of both the households and the
firms sectors.
Yet
in certain cases and periods it has occurred that
the aggregate demand was on the decline again. The
resurgence of recession in some countries (e.g.
Czech Republic in 1997-1999, Russia in 1998-99,
Albania in 1997-98), or remarkable slowdown in some
others (e.g. Poland in 1998-1999 ) had led also
the slowing down the process of expansion of the
SME. Whatever was the actual cause of triggering
the policies aiming at the containment of the rate
of growth -- was it a concern about too fast and
too much growing current account deficit, as for
instance in Estonia and Hungary, or was it the reaction
for the fallout from the Russian crisis, as for
instance in Slovakia and Moldova -- the resulting
downward shift in aggregate demand must led to slower
than otherwise expansion of the SME sector.
|